Trends and metrics

Selling mobile applications

Tue, 08 May 2007 06:59:56 -0400

The Little Springs Design blog has some thoughtful comments on selling mobile applications to consumers. I think most developers are familiar with the problem: even if you set aside the discoverability problem, it's often difficult for potential buyers to evaluate an app before buying it.

Expect major mobile innovations: Google

Mon, 23 Apr 2007 20:01:39 -0400

Google's mobile plans
"Mobile, mobile, mobile," Google CEO Eric Schmidt told the Web 2.0 Expo audience when asked for the Web's biggest growth areas.

Mobile AdWords have done well for Google, but "there are probably other monetization means in mobile as well," Deep Nishar, Director of Product Development at Google said at a separate conference in Tokyo. Google currently has deals with the two main Japanese carriers, NTT DoCoMo and KDDI, to provide mobile search for a combined 71 million handsets.

So where is Google going next? The recent release of a free voice-driven mobile search is one indication. (An interesting conspiracy theory is that the 411 search is cover for a Google effort to collect voice samples and home its voice recognition tools for future applications.) Expanding Mobile AdWords beyond Japan is practically a given; competitors like Third Screen and AdMob are gaining ground by the day.

And then, of course, there's the Google phone. As FierceWireless reported last month, Google's chief executive for Spain and Portugal confirms the company is working on its own mobile phone "as one of 18 research and development initiatives." Blogger Danny Sullivan makes the case that Google is actually gearing up for a mass release of a device with a timeline of evidence right up to a recent DigiTimes report that Taiwanese manufacturer High Tech Computer (HTC) is currently building phones for the search giant, with shipments expected by the end of the year. I would also include this job ad, which seeks a Program Manager to "launch hardware products into mass production."

Update: Last week I reported that the HTC Advantage would probably cost around €1,000. Official prices have still not been released, but a knowledgeable tipster wrote in to say the retail prices is likely closer to $800.

Editor's Corner

Mon, 12 Mar 2007 20:01:39 -0400

Mobile Web best practices battle it out
Creating web content for mobile devices is tough work. dotMobi, the registrar for mobile-only .mobi domains, just made it a little easier by publicly releasing its Mobile Web Developer's Guide (pdf) to the public. The guide explains how to meet the minimum requirements for a .mobi domain (namely that content be served as XHTML-MP by default) along with a large set of best practices and an overview of some of the varied approaches to the mobile Web. The dotMobi guide is impressive and was clearly written by someone who has been in the trenches (Brian Fling of Blue Flavor), but in some ways yet another set of best practices is the last thing designers need.

The W3C's Mobile Web Initiative Best Practices is the benchmark guide, but many developers feel it is an impractical and Utopian vision of "One Web" that can be accessed by any device. To quote Luca Passani, a maintainer of the venerable WURFL device capabilities database, "I understand that W3C is all about the web and some may dream about a unified web which can be accessed with equal ease by PCs and mobile devices, but this is just a dream: web and mobile will remain separate media for many many years to come (probably more)."

In response, Luca has created Global Authoring Practices for the Mobile Web (GAP), which purports to be the only independent alternative to the W3C's guide. Some of the general advice is similar, but GAP differs vastly from the W3C when it comes to nuts and bolts. While the W3C recommends creating pages as XHTML 1.1 Basic, a standard with mixed support on today's mobile devices, GAP (like dotMobi) recommends XHTML-MP, the de facto standard. GAP also focuses on adaptation--customizing pages for the specific device making the request--rather than risk locking out low-end handsets or being forced to design for only the least common denominator.

Now what's the best practice on choosing a set of best practices? For desktop Web designers the choice is largely philosophical. To borrow some terms from English grammarians, it's a split between the prescriptivists, who want to do it "the right way" with clean, 100 percent standards-compliant markup, and the descriptivists, who believe in markup that works and that designing inclusively is more important than conforming to a spec. On the mobile Web, unfortunately, there doesn't even seem to be a "correct" markup specification, and differences between browsers are so vast that an XML database is needed to keep track of them.

The mobile Web is the Wild West; it's a hostile development environment with no clear rules. But the mobile Web is also full of opportunity. A recent survey revealed that 76 percent of respondents in the U.S. and Europe had access to the mobile Web, but only 32 percent actually use it. Sounds like plenty of room for growth to me. -Eli

Wireless network neutrality

Mon, 12 Mar 2007 20:01:38 -0400

The fight over network neutrality is coming to wireless. Skype fired the first shot by asking the FCC to affirm that existing neutrality and interconnect rules apply to wireless networks too. CTIA asserts that Skype's logic is flawed and that forcing network neutrality on carriers would result in a less competitive marketplace. Check out Brian Dolan's report in FierceWireless for a detailed look at the issues.

Editor's Corner

Mon, 05 Mar 2007 19:01:39 -0500

Connected Mobile Gaming
This week I'm reporting live from the Game Developers Conference in San Francisco. It's still early, but GDC Mobile seems be particularly upbeat this year. A new Telephia report that shows mobile gaming revenues were up 61 percent Q4. I also notice less whining about the carriers' paternalism and stringy revenue sharing deals, and more talk about the good stuff: creating scalable technologies to support games as they grow, games that span platforms from mobile to console to desktop, and creating new development tools to support the next-generation multimedia capabilities coming in the next round of high-end handsets.

One theme I'm particularly excited about is multiplayer gaming. Nealy everyone I've talked to at the show, from ARM to Nokia, has been enthusiastic about network-connected gaming.

SNAP Mobile is one of the first names that comes to mind for multiplayer gaming. This Nokia division offers a Java API that accompanies a server-based infrastructure that make it easy to create multiplayer games and takes care of many of the mundane details like presence, instant messaging and locating other gamers. I wrote about SNAP Mobile a year ago at GDC 2006, and I have to say that it's a bit disappointing to see that it doesn't look like much has changed, however I still think it's an amazing bit of technology. (And, in case you were wondering, SNAP Mobile is Java based so it is not really part of the new S60-based N-Gage platform.)

The real gaming innovation may be coming from a much lesser known name. Kyu Lee, general manger of South Korea's GAMEVIL, yesterday presented a case study on Path of a Warrior, GAMEVIL's most successful title and one of the most successful massively multiplayer mobile games available anywhere. The sheer volume of interest in Path of a Warrior is impressive on its own. Lee said sales in most of his company's titles trail off after a year, but Warrior is still going strong nearly two years later. There are currently 80,000 monthly subscribers paying at least $4.90 per month. Of the $4.90, 85.5 percent goes to GAMEVIL, the VM developers gets 5 percent, and the carrier gets 10 percent. Warrior also requires a near constant data connection to play the regular version of the game, so for customers without a flat-rate data plan, GAMEVIL negotiated a special $9.90 monthly rate ($5 goes to the carrier, the remaining $4.90 is divided as above) that includes unlimited data packets for this game only. As far as I know, nothing like this has been attempted before; it's a really innovative way to make the game more accessible to customers and create value for the carrier.

Lee's lecture was very well attended and most of the questions focused on translating GAMEVIL's success in Korea into other markets. In other words, this is the sort of thing that developers from around the world are interested in.

A stand-alone version of the game is available now from Verizon Wireless, and Lee is hopeful that his company can convince a North American carrier to launch the full multiplayer version.

The draw of these types of multiplayer, "connected" games is clear: multiplayer features make use of the data network, which is a unique feature of the mobile phone. Some handheld gaming devices has networking capabilities, but hardly any of them have access to a network that is nearly always accessible. Casual multiplayer gaming is one of the few areas of video games in which mobile phones really have the potential to drive innovation. - Eli

Trip Hawkins takes on Mitch Lasky

Mon, 05 Mar 2007 19:01:38 -0500

In his GDC Mobile keynote, Digital Chocolate's Trip Hawkins spoke out against the "conventional wisdom" espoused by Mitch Lasky at his 2006 GDC keynote. Last year, Lasky railed against the poor quality of most mobile games and declared that without some solid hits, many of these publishers would not survive. (See my write-up of Lasky's 2006 keynote). Hawkins rejected the idea that publishers can't survive without hit titles. A year ago, Digital Chocolate had no hits, but "we're alive and well," Hawkins declared. More on the keynote at FierceGameBiz.

Trip Hawkins: Forget 'bigger and better'

Mon, 05 Mar 2007 19:01:38 -0500

Game developers love to create bigger, better and flashier titles, which is one reason we're losing sight of what really works on the mobile phone--and losing our best developers to console and PC gaming, warns Digital Chocolate's Trip Hawkins. "There is definitely room for more originality and healthier competition," he said in his GDC Mobile keynote address. This news may not be a shock to seasoned mobile developers (especially those who have heard Hawkins talk before), but it is a good point: Writing mobile games is a tough business with a myriad of technical and business obstacles. There isn't a lot of room for error, so focus very carefully on on your customers and make sure you're doing everything possible to make you title attractive to carriers. For more on Hawkins speech, check out FierceGameBiz.

Report: 1 in 4 handsets will be under $20 by 2011

Mon, 22 Jan 2007 19:01:38 -0500

FierceWireless cites an ABI report that 1 in 4 new handsets shipped in 2011 will be Ultra-Low Cost Handsets (i.e. under $20). India is expected to be the biggest destination for these handsets, along with Africa and the Middle East.

Editor's Corner: iPhone bad for developers

Mon, 15 Jan 2007 19:01:39 -0500

iPhone: Now for the bad news
Apple announced the iPhone last week, and in many ways it blew away expectations. Widescreen video playback, a slick Web browser and WiFi support are excellent surprises. And, of course, the phone looks fabulous.

But a few days have passed since the MacWorld keynote, and Steve Jobs' Reality Distortion Field has begun to dissipate. It was inevitable; the level of buzz leading up to the MacWorld keynote was so high that some people were bound to feel let down.

The iPhone is neither the first button-less phone (check out LG's award-winning design) nor is it the first iTunes compatible phone (who could forget the ill-fated Motorola ROKR?). It's also got a mere 8GB of non-expandable storage at best, which means that any self-respecting music fans is going to have to lug around an iPod too. Mobile phone geeks are bummed that the iPhone won't ship with 3G support out of the box, though HSDPA will probably be added later and, frankly, EDGE+WiFi is good enough for most users. A bigger issue for consumers is the Cingular-only distribution strategy, which is a mistake, but it's not fatal.

The real problem with the iPhone is Apple's complete lack of concern for third-party developers. Not only is there no SDK available, but Apple has expressed a desire to maintain compete control over the "consumer experience." Apple won't even disclose what processor the phone is running. (According to an FBR Research report cited by the EE Times, the CPU is made by Samsung.) The iPhone also has no memory card slot and no support for Java or Flash. It's not even clear if Apple will allow users to install unapproved ringtones.

According to a Newsweek interview, Steve Jobs said: "You don't want your phone to be an open platform...You need it to work when you need it to work. Cingular doesn't want to see their West Coast network go down because some application messed up." It's a laughable excuse; Cingular offers plenty of other Smartphones with open platforms and none of them have crashed the network yet. I'm sure that I'm preaching to the choir, but an open platform benefits everyone. Well, nearly everyone. I imagine some people drop the 15-cents-per-message SMS-based chat client once third-party developers port iChat to the platform (a suspicious oversight on Apple's part).

What can concerned developers do about the iPhone? Not much. Apple's plans are still largely a mystery, and presumably there will eventually be some system that allows developers to submit applications to Apple so they can be approved to distribution. In the meantime, some indie developers are to filing bug reports about the lack of support. I guess it can't hurt, but I don't think this is a decision Apple made lightly. Apple managed to sell millions of iPods without opening up the DRM to competitors, and the company is hoping to do the same here. -Eli

My predictions for 2007

Mon, 01 Jan 2007 19:01:39 -0500

Four Predictions for 2007
Happy New Year! This is the first issue of FierceDeveloper of 2007, which means it's time for me to make some predictions about what developers can expect for the next 12 months.

1. Mobile applications are only going to get more complex in 2007, and managing the thousands of different builds for a consumer software app is a real problem. Software, virtual machine and hardware incompatibilities are always going to be an issue so expect more developers to turn to higher-level solutions that abstract away many of these problems. It will be a good year for Flash Lite apps (especially if Adobe's Apollo does well on the desktop). We will also see the first round of simple mobile AJAX applications this year.

2. The vast majority of Windows Mobile development thus far has been focused on PPC devices equipped with touchscreens, but the sudden rise of inexpensive Windows Mobile Smartphone devices like the Dash, Q, and Blackjack makes Win Mobile SP a whole lot more attractive. I predict many enterprises that have not yet adopted a clear mobile strategy and already run on Microsoft will standardize on Windows Mobile Smartphone. Likewise, Smartphone-powered phones are quickly becoming the default $99 upgrade for U.S. consumers renewing their contract, but the Smartphone shareware market has not yet caught up.

3. Mobile advertising was heavily hyped in 2006, but not much came of it. Expect Yahoo to expand its mobile search options and Google to finally launch a Mobile AdWords beta (incidentally, Google is hiring for a Mobile UI Designer apparently for AdSense). With its Web ad dominance, Google is the company to watch, though it's going to face an uphill battle against AdMob, Advertizer, and a dozen other competitors who came to market first. Google may have to result to some Microsoftian measures to make up for its latecomer status.

The carriers want in on the action too: Sprint already serves up ads on its deck and Verizon has plans to put ads on its mobile sites early this year. I see this as a good thing; its part of a larger trend toward the democratization of mobile web access and the crumbling of the walled garden. Carrier decks are eventually going to have to compete on their own merits, so its only fair that carriers are allowed to earn some ad revenue off that deck.

Overall, it will be a big year for mobile advertising, though innovative (and potentially more lucrative) mobile advertising schemes like ad-supported mobile games aren't going to make it in the 2007. Maybe next year.

4. Mobile social networking will grow by leaps and bounds in 2007, but the lack of a clear dominant player limits the usefulness of any one services. Desktop giants like MySpace (partnered with Cingular) will have to duke it out with mobile-centric social startups like Boost's Loopt and Zemble. I predict Google will relaunch Dodgeball in late 2007 (as a "Beta," of course), but the product will face an uphill battle since Google hasn't made many public updates since it bought the company in mid-2005.

Privacy concerns over mobile social networkings apps (especially those that incorporate location data) will make it into the mainstream media scare stories--and rightfully so. The industry needs to come up with a clear set of rules about who owns social and location data and what can be done with it.

What do you think? Email or post your own predictions for the new year. I'll reprint the best ones in a future issue of the newsletter. -Eli